Bao titanium shares (600456): sustainable verification of performance transformation logic continues to be optimistic about the company’s future performance
Event: The company announced the first quarter performance report, the company achieved operating income in Q1 201911.
50 ppm, an increase of 65 over the same period last year.
50%; the company achieved a net profit of 2943.
220,000 yuan, expected 828 in the same period last year.
650,000 yuan, turning losses into profits.
The company’s performance is in line with our expectations.
Comment: Benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of titanium products, the company’s first quarter of 2019’s performance turned to profit, and it achieved profit for the first time in five years.
Although the company’s other metal products (18 years revenue accounted for 29.
97%) The sales volume fluctuation in the first quarter was 97.
62%, but the company’s titanium products (18-year revenue accounted for 66.
37%) In the first quarter, sales rose 124 year-on-year.
98%, benefiting from the rapid growth of the company’s titanium product sales, the company’s performance has improved significantly, and it achieved profit for the first time in the first quarter of 2011.
The company’s operation and management is stable, the overall cost of the four fees is basically stable, and the proportion of the four fees revenue continues to decline.
After preliminary comparison, it can be found that the four fees of the company in 2019Q1 are generally 1.
One billion, four fee revenue accounted for 9.
60% in the first quarter of 2018 (1.
01 billion, accounting for 14.
47%), 2017Q1 (0.
9.3 billion, accounting for 16.
69%) in the first quarter of 2016 (1.
02 trillion, accounting for 28.
80%), 2015Q1 (1.
1.8 billion, accounting for 21.
56%), the absolute amount of the four fees is relatively stable, and the proportion of the four fees revenue continues to decline, which reflects the company’s stated management capabilities. We analyze and believe that in the future, the company ‘s revenue will continue to grow rapidly and the company ‘s four fee revenue proportionExpected to continue to decline.
The company has sufficient orders in hand to ensure high growth in future performance.
According to the official news report of the major shareholder Baotai Group, as of March, the scheduled amount of Baotai Group’s forging plant has exceeded the same period in 2018; at the same time, according to the announcement of Baotai Group, the Group’s titanium product processing business is mainly carried out by Baotai Group.The share of titanium product revenue accounts for approximately 80% of the Group’s consolidated caliber titanium product revenue.
Therefore, our analysis believes that a large number of orders in hand will guarantee the company’s rapid growth in future performance.
Military and civilian exports are all in force, and the company’s future performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
1) Military: The company has a multi-point layout, and the downstream key 都市夜网 equipment models are gradually increased in order to increase the company’s demand for titanium materials. 2) Civil: The downstream chemical and petroleum industries have improved demand.3) Export: The company has complete qualifications, and it is expected that the company will fully benefit from the rising demand for titanium abroad.
Maintain profit forecast and “Buy” rating.
We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 2 respectively.
20 billion, EPS is 0.
67 yuan / share, currently sustainable (2019/4/23 continues to 22.
(86 yuan) The corresponding PE is 35, 21, 14X, and the company’s PE average variables are 46, 33, 25X. Considering that the company is the only listed leading company in the domestic military and civilian titanium processing industry, its bargaining power is reduced, and it is expected to usher in performance in the future.Continued high growth.Therefore, we are optimistic about the company’s investment value and maintain a “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; downstream military and civilians are less than expected; downstream chemical demand recovery is not as expected.