Macalline (601828): 57% since the high point!But Alibaba has no fear of plunging money into the game!what happened?(Estimated modeling)

Macalline (601828): 57% since the high point!But Alibaba has no fear of plunging money into the game!what happened?(Estimated modeling)
Today, the company we studied can be said to be “McDonald’s in the home industry”, because its business model is actually very similar to McDonald’s business model-while renting in front of a “charter”, and exposed by brand outputTitle consultation fee.If you have read the team’s modeling report on McDonald’s, you should be familiar with this model. However, unlike McDonald’s “lease-sublease” form, most of the properties held in this case are owned properties, and from the report data, its investment real estate is as high as 78.5 billion (70% of total assets).Among China Construction ($ 68.6 billion), Vanke ($ 54 billion), China Ping An ($ 46.7 billion), China Merchants Shekou ($ 39.8 billion), and Greenland Holdings ($ 22.2 billion). That being the case, there is now an Ali platform behind it, holding hands on new retail.In May 2019, Ali started with 43.At a price of $ 5.9 billion, Alibaba will hold 10% of its convertible bonds after the full purchase of the convertible bonds.Ali also acquired its 3 shares in Hong Kong.7% shares, and it is expected to become its second largest shareholder in the future. Fundamentals, summary Before modelling, let’s summarize the fundamentals of this case: 1) Future growth space-Many people worry that the home industry is not growing, in fact, there is no need to worry.In 2018, the annual retail sales of the home furnishings and furniture retail market increased to RMB 33,045 trillion, an increase of 11.9%, the annual compound development (CAGR) in the next five years is expected to be 10.9%, the industry growth rate is higher than the overall growth rate of China’s macro economy.Even the urbanization rate reaches the level of the United States. From the perspective of the United States, even in the mature period of the industry, leading companies can still maintain a 杭州夜网 5% growth rate. 2) Income driving force-Macroscopic dimensions look at two major factors: the process of urbanization, the growth of residents’ income level, and micro-levels mainly look at three major factors: increasing market share, increasing the number of stores, and increasing unit rental income. 3) Return analysis-from 2016 to 2018, the ROIC after cash excluding them is 6 respectively.1%, 6.2%, 8.4%, mainly due to higher interest-bearing diabetes, and the use of fair value model for investment real estate, resulting in higher retained earnings.Overall, its business model has the attributes of the commercial real estate industry. 4) The core moat-home furnishings have the characteristics of heavy platform and light brand. This case is a national leader in the home furnishing chain mall industry in developing countries. The moat is mainly in channels and brands.It adopts two models of self-employed and commission-managed, and the self-employed model overlaps with core areas of first- and second-tier cities. 5) Competitive landscape-The home furnishing industry has a high degree of non-standardization, and the concentration of the entire industry chain has decreased. From the perspective of chain stores in the distribution channel, the top five in 2016 accounted for only 28.53%, of which this case is at the top, with 11.82%, followed by Actual Home, Moonstar Group. 6) Risk factors-A: financial budget, high interest-bearing debt, investment real estate accounting methods may cause changes in profits; B: shareholders’ interests, the proportion of pledged shares by major shareholders.11%; C: industry and company size, one is the impact of real estate scale policy and the interest rate of refined decoration; the other is the shift in economic growth, the consumer consumption is expected to decline, and discretionary consumption is more careful;The fourth is the accident earlier this year.